2010: Interesting or shit? Probably both.
by asi
This is NOT a ‘trends in digital’ kind of post. It’s just a quick observation on the state of the industry.
So what can we expect from 2010?
Not much I’m afraid. It seems like 2009 was the year that the industry really started to contract (it started before, of course, but became much more apparent over the last year).
Advertising agencies are slowly digging digital. Digital agencies punching above their traditional weight. PR agencies reposition themselves as social media specialists and DM…. WTF is DM anyway???
The point I’m trying to make is that it feels like next year the ideas that the web (or digital or social, choose your own term) is a culture NOT a siloed marketing channel and that the gravity of social publishing tools makes everything social media will finally mature. So next year we will see the ‘natural selection of interestingness’ in full action – great ideas win no matter where they come from.
What’s more, the novelty spirit of ‘digital’ and new technologies is (sadly) winding down. That spirit which brought us some seminal, game-changing marketing stories from the likes of Poke, Dare and Glue seem to somewhat lost it’s steam.
So what does this mean? For me, it means not just gloves off, everybody meddling in each others’ business – we had that last year as well and to be honest it makes things interesting from a business point of you. My rather pessimistic prediction for next year is that we’re back to (Sturgeon’s) reality after a decade of exciting opportunities.
What I’m concerned about, on a very personal level, is that we are entering a phase in the industry where everybody’s doing obvious stuff that might work but isn’t really exciting.
May the Gods of creativity prove me wrong.
With regards to the marketing services industry, you’re totally right. Everyone’s starting to get up to speed. All agencies are meddling in all areas.
With your point about social media-space and digital media-production maturing, I don’t agree at all. It’ll be Thalia and her friends that show you how to use properly social media.
Shirky said something along the lines of’ “It’s not when new tools arrive that revolution occurs but when society adopts them”
Only 1/3 of Britain is on Facebook. And Facebook only really connects you better with the people you already know. This is old behaviour in tools.
I don’t reckon we’re getting to a digital/social/connected/NEW culture yet.
We made Wikipedia this decade. And this video is as relevant as ever:
http://www.ted.com/talks/kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_the_web.html
Every year is a bit shit. That’s a fact.
There’s so much fucking awesome opportunity around, but there are also a truckload of barriers to doing great work. Some of our own doing, some not. We just need to stay creative and stay excited.
Don’t let the bastards grind you down – for there are indeed many bastards out there. Most of them calling themselves social media experts.
It will take a combination of creativity and resilience to win.
fellas,
I’m re-reading myself and it does sound a bit gloomy…(if not totally incoherent)
@Iain – I so very much agree with you mate. When I wrote this I was looking at the empty half (truckload of barriers) of the glass…
I just hope and wish that there will be more days of excitement and creativity next years than days of pointless barriers fighting…
@Mason – meant only on marketing stuff, of course we haven’t seen anything yet etc. this TED talk is awesome indeed
may the good stuff win
may the good work win
may the good people win
[...] I wrote that I fear that in 2010 we’ll see loads of obvious stuff that might work but isn’t [...]